On Thursday, April 25, during the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading around $2,318.
As the conflict in the Middle East de-escalates, the gold and silver markets are correcting, and the key question is whether these corrections will turn into a near-term downward price trend, thus signaling that a market top has occurred.
Market focus is back on economic reports and the Federal Reserve.
If we see overheating inflation data, it will be more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Although the Federal Reserve has stated that it is in no rush to cut interest rates and expects the high interest rate policy to continue for a period of time, high interest rates and the pressure to raise interest rates are a thing of the past. The Federal Reserve\’s continuous violent interest rate hikes in 2022 have not brought down the price of gold, but have remained at a high and wide range. Shock.
Now it is even less likely to make it fall sharply. Therefore, we cannot expect the price of gold to fall due to lower expectations of interest rate cuts, stronger expectations of interest rate hikes, or weakening demand for safe havens.
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released today, and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report will be released on Friday.
Traders now expect the most likely date for the Fed\’s first interest rate cut to be September.
In terms of gold, the range fluctuated yesterday, and the space was further narrowed. The high and low points were concentrated around the US market, and the daily line closed with a cross star.
Looking at the daily line, gold can rise or fall, but the trend is not too clear. The short-term pressure is around 2322, which is also the watershed between bulls and bears during the day. If this position is blocked, the market will fall back to the low of 2313 in the early morning. If it effectively breaks through 2313 You can continue to look at 2306 or even near this week\’s low.
If the market stabilizes at 2322, it is estimated that it will go to 2328 or even near yesterday\’s high. In the short term, we still try to see the short side adjust further, and the rebound is to gain momentum for further breakthroughs.
Operational suggestions: The top is short near 2328 or 34, and the bottom is long near 2306. Try 16/17 long orders in aggressive early trading, and other points are given in the intraday trading.
Yesterday we were over 16/17, the US was over 18, and we were all eliminated at 30.
In terms of Shanghai gold, the highest price yesterday was around 554.5, the lowest was around 548, and the closing price was around 550. Yesterday, the price was 553-555, and there is still a small space for short continuation. Looking at today\’s market, we continue to see short continuation, with upper resistance at 554-560. Nearby and touching are all positions that can be shorted. Pay attention to controlling the position, and do not go long at will for the time being. Continue to pay attention to the participation of short and long near 535 below, and other points will wait for later structural changes before entering the market.
Operational advice: If you continue to hold orders at 553-555, you can continue to enter the market if it rebounds in this area during the day. The target is 540-535, and short and long near 535 below.
For other short-term operations within the day, focus on Huihai Legend.
In terms of Shanghai Silver, it rebounded after hitting the bottom of 7000 on Tuesday. It has been oscillating in the 7000-7150 area for two days. After experiencing a big drop, the fluctuations are relatively limited, and the main shock is recovery. In the later period, it is still bullish to see further downwards. The upper resistance is the 7260-7280 area. If it is weaker, it does not rule out a continuation downward at 7150. The lower support focuses on the 6850-6800 area, which can be touched more. It is also our target area for this round of adjustment.
Other points will be analyzed later after waiting for market changes.
Operational suggestions: Focus on the 7150 or 7260-7280 area above, defend 50 points, and target 100-300.
We continue to hold 7450-7500 short positions to reduce our short positions, and pay attention to Huihai Legend for other short-term operations within the day.
