For stock trading, please read Jin Qilin analyst research reports. They are authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you to tap potential theme opportunities! Author: Ling Peng Source: Wasteland Investment Ling Peng\’s Strategy Essay As of today\’s close, a \”phenomenon\” has appeared in Shenwan\’s first-level industry: banks rose 15.9%, ranking first, real estate fell 20.3%, ranking last, and one The difference is 36.2%.
It is said that banks are the \”post-cycle\” of real estate. Why is there such a big difference? Is the market wrong? In fact, not only banks, but also the top few companies are inextricably linked to real estate, but why are the trends so different? This situation is not just one day or two days, but it will generally be the case after the Spring Festival in 2021.
If only one or two stocks are like this, it may be due to individual factors, but if it is like this for many industries and for a long time, there must be deep-seated reasons behind it, and it is difficult for the market to be wrong for a long time.
Regarding this \”vision\”, many people have given two explanations.
First, systematic fraud.
The fundamentals of these industries are not affected by real estate because they whitewash their reports or even falsify them.
This may be possible for individuals, but fraud across fields and across industries is unlikely.
Second, it’s just that the time has not yet come.
Everyone said this when real estate problems first came out. Now 2-3 years later, they still say this. Will it never happen? In fact, in addition to the above two \”explanations\”, there is a third possibility, which is that \”these industries have already been separated from real estate before the real estate regulation, so they are not affected.\” This also involves the basics of this round of real estate regulation. logic.
As we all know, real estate has been a major driver of China\’s economy for a long time. We know this, and the top management is certainly aware of this.
But since 2003, housing prices have been rising higher and higher, and there seems to be no good control method? In fact, it\’s not that you don\’t know the seven inches of a snake, but that you\’re afraid that the whole body will be affected by a single move.
Governing a big country is like cooking a small one. To eradicate this stubborn disease, we must first clean up its periphery.
Therefore, since 2012, the state has begun to cut off the connection between banks and real estate. The method is naturally to reduce the credit provided by banks to real estate, both on and off the balance sheet.
However, the capital chain of real estate cannot be completely cut off at this time, otherwise it will be detrimental to the overall situation. Therefore, after 2012, trusts and non-banks have filled the role of banks in real estate financing. This is also the fundamental reason why the trust industry has prospered in the next ten years and has been in a quagmire in the past two years. .
By the end of 2015, the country launched the \”supply-side reform\” again, implementing a \”top-down\” approach based on the industry\’s own overcapacity reduction from 2011 to 2015.
This ultimately led to a recovery in commodity prices, a rebound in ROE in cyclical industries, and a significant improvement in balance sheets.
After these peripheral areas are dealt with, the focus will be on real estate at the beginning of 2021.
At this time, I am very confident, and I will not show any mercy even if I encounter the three-year epidemic.
And the results are immediate and accurate, which also verifies the previous statement that \”it\’s not that I don\’t know how to govern, but that I didn\’t dare to do it before.\”
Starting from 2021, the real estate industry has cooled rapidly. Some industries (such as cement, home appliances, kitchen and bath, paint) have been affected, and trusts and non-banks have also been affected. However, the bulk of coal, non-ferrous steel, chemicals and banks seem to be decoupled.
In fact, banks are affected.
We summarize the specific department non-performing ratios announced by each bank, as shown in the following table: From 1H 2021 to 1H 2023, the non-performing ratio of the bank\’s real estate department has almost doubled from 2.08% to 4.10%.
In just two years, the non-performing rate has doubled and the impact has been huge, which truly reflects the actual situation of the real estate industry in the past two years.
However, the overall non-performing ratio of the banking industry dropped from 1.38% to 1.27%. This was mainly due to the decline in non-performing ratios of other sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing, and the mining industry.
The decline in non-performing ratios and improvement in balance sheets of these sub-sectors match the quarterly reports of listed companies in this industry, are verifiable, and are definitely not fake! And all of this is due to the country’s previous demining and layout, and history will ultimately rate all of this very highly.
So the real situation is as follows: Everyone knows that real estate is a serious problem, but it should not be touched lightly – the country is determined to clear mines and cut off the periphery first – starting in 2012, it cut off banks and supported trusts, and in 2016 \”supply-side reform\” – —Beginning in 2021, the periphery has been cleared and real estate management has been concentrated. In just two years, real estate has dropped to a freezing point, but the bulk has not been affected.
The logic is clear and the facts are verifiable.
This is the real situation we have experienced in the past ten years. It cannot be covered by \”fake\” or \”the time has not yet come\”. The market sees it for real, which is also the most magical place.
Even though 99% of the people I come into contact with don’t agree with this statement and don’t do it, that’s how the market goes.
In the second half of 2020, after in-depth research and logical inference, we came to the above conclusion and started planning in 2021.
If it was just a logical inference at the beginning of 2021, the probability of it coming true now has further increased, because we have looked at three years of data and 12 quarterly reports, and the development of the situation is generally similar to the prediction at the time.
Whether a theory is correct does not depend on how many people agree with it, but on whether it can explain as many phenomena as possible and its inferences can be observed in the future.
Recently, many FOFs and family offices competing for us said that we were \”going against the market\”. I said, \”We did go against the market in 2020, but in the past three years we have actually been going with the market.\”
The \”Maoning\” bubble burst in 2020. We felt that the risks of these stocks were huge, so we did not participate. However, this is how the market will go after the Spring Festival in 2021. We are just going against the mainstream crowd, not against the market.
