Zhang Jinlei: U.S. GDP data is expected to be negative and gold will fall

On April 25, gold had a volatile market yesterday. As expected, it basically fluctuated in the range of 2335-2310. Both long and short made profits. It only slightly refreshed the intraday high of $2336 in the evening, but then fell quickly. Spit out gains.

In the end, gold price closed at $2,315, and the daily line closed at 3 consecutive negative levels.

On Thursday (April 25), the price of gold briefly fell into a volatile market after a sharp rise and fall, mainly because the risk premium caused by tensions in the Middle East has eased, and the market is also paying close attention to the U.S. financial data to be announced later this week. Economic data, which could provide clues on the Fed\’s path to raising interest rates.

In particular, tonight\’s GDP data is also a top priority.

It can be said that the price of gold is now in a narrow range, but market sentiment is still affected by short-term economic data.

Tonight\’s GDP data and tomorrow night\’s PCE data are both important.

However, as far as the author is concerned, the recent US data performance is still good, and the probability of negative news in the evening is still relatively high. Unless risk aversion is in place, the probability of gold falling back is greater.

From a technical point of view, the top of the day will continue to focus on the pressure near 2335 and 2350 on the 5th and 10th lines. If the US GDP data tonight can be bullish for gold, gold may test the pressure of 2335 or even 2350 again.

And if the US GDP data tonight is negative for gold, gold may move below the previously expected key support area of ​​2280-70.

In short, gold has fallen into short-term range oscillations since the late trading session on Tuesday. The approximate range is in the 2335-10 area and extends to the current stage. Such a state is very difficult for operations and the market is waiting for important data. The result of relevant guidance.

Therefore, conservatives choose to wait and see for the time being during the day, and do not plan to participate during the white market period. They will make relevant adjustments in the evening based on the data situation. At present, there is room for gold to move up and down. For tonight\’s data market, there are also certain operations. of value.

Therefore, the intraday operation suggestions are as follows: Gold: short the 2325-2320 line, stop loss 2030, and target the 2300-2290-2280 line.

The financial data and events we focus on today: Thursday, April 25, 2024, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to April 20, 20:30, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States, 20: 30 The initial value of the quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter of the United States is 20: 30 The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter of the United States is 22:00 The monthly rate of the contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March

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