The vaccine market is turbulent, and Zhifei Biotech’s “big brother” status is difficult to maintain

For stock trading, please read Jin Qilin analyst research reports. They are authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you to tap potential theme opportunities! Source: Financial Investment News Financial Investment News reporter Chen Yuhe After Zhifei Biotechnology (300122), the “vaccine brother”, released its 2023 annual report, its stock price continued to fall. Some market participants attributed its falling stock price to its high reliance on foreign supplies. Business is linked to the gradually revealed decline in performance.

In recent years, the vaccine market has been changing. On the one hand, the once \”hot-selling\” nine-price HPV vaccine is no longer hard to find. On the other hand, various good news about the domestically produced nine-price HPV vaccine continue to spread, attracting a lot of attention. Institutions pay great attention to its listing process.

Zhifei Bio\’s growth capability indicators Zhi Fei Bio\’s stock price continues to fall. The annual report shows that in 2023, Zhi Fei Bio\’s operating income was 52.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%; it achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.04%.

However, despite the favorable performance, the stock price fell sharply.

After plunging 11.99% on April 23, Zhifei Biotech fell another 3.7% on the 24th. Its market value evaporated by nearly 15 billion yuan in two trading days, and its total market value was surpassed by Wantai Biotechnology by about 400 million yuan.

According to Wind, although the stock price rebounded on the 25th, looking at the long-term view, since the beginning of this year, Zhifei Biotechnology’s stock price has fallen by 44.02%. Based on this calculation, as of the close of trading on the 25th, the company’s market value has evaporated by more than 64 billion yuan. .

The reason for this situation is, according to some opinions, related to the company\’s performance decline in recent years.

Although net profit attributable to the parent company barely achieves positive growth in 2023, this is also based on a sharp decline of 26.15% in 2022, and its sustainability is questionable.

According to the first quarter report of Zhifei Biotech in 2024, the company\’s net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of this year is still declining compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 28.26%, indicating that the company\’s performance decline has become increasingly obvious.

A brief comparison shows that the company\’s net profit attributable to shareholders in 2017 grew by more than 1,200%; in 2018 and 2021, the growth rate exceeded 200%.

Deeply tied to foreign suppliers In the eyes of many market participants, in recent years, Zhifei Biotech’s operating conditions have been deeply tied to foreign supplier Merck.

The annual report shows that in 2023, Zhifei Biotechnology’s agent product revenue will account for 98% of its total revenue.

The company\’s largest supplier in 2023 is Merck, accounting for 96.06% of its annual procurement proportion. Its agent products include quadrivalent HPV vaccine, nine-valent HPV vaccine, pentavalent rotary vaccine, etc.

According to the company announcement, Zhifei Biotech once relied on Merck to achieve rapid growth in performance.

In 2017, Zhifei Biotech signed the exclusive domestic agency rights for Merck\’s quadrivalent HPV vaccine. During the year, the company\’s net profit attributable to its parent company surged by 1229.25%. In 2018, Zhifei Biotech signed the exclusive agency rights for Merck\’s nine-valent HPV vaccine. The company\’s net profit attributable to parent companies increased significantly by 235.75% year-on-year.

At that time, there were only three approved HPV vaccines in the world. In addition to GlaxoSmithKline\’s bivalent vaccine, the Merck\’s quadrivalent HPV vaccine and the nine-valent HPV vaccine signed by Zhifei Biotech were unparalleled.

Among them, the nine-price HPV vaccine is a \”hot item\”. There was even an exaggerated rush to buy the vaccine that year when more than 90,000 people applied for the nine-price HPV vaccine in a lottery, but only a thousand people won the lottery.

However, with the rapid changes in the HPV vaccine market, not only are the bivalent HPV vaccines now priced under 100 yuan, but the nine-valent HPV vaccine is no longer \”hard to get\”. Some hospitals have also revealed that the price of the vaccine will be paid on the same day. News available for vaccination.

In terms of domestic vaccines, on April 10 this year, the unblinded results of the Phase III clinical trial of Wantai Biotech\’s nine-valent HPV vaccine showed that \”the main results were in line with expectations\”; the annual report of Ruike Biology, \”the first domestic HPV nine-price stock\”, showed that its recombinant HPV The phase III clinical trial of the nine-valent vaccine REC603 has completed the 24th month visit; the nine-valent HPV vaccine developed by Bowei Biotech is the first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine to enter phase III clinical trials; and Kangle Guardian except women In addition to the phase III clinical trial of the nine-valent HPV vaccine with indications of 30 to 36 months of follow-up, it also has the only domestically produced HPV vaccine for men currently in phase III clinical trials; in addition, China Cell also has the world\’s first 14-valent HPV The vaccine has entered Phase III clinical trials.

On the other hand, although Merck\’s nine-valent HPV vaccine underwent an \”age expansion\” in 2022 and successfully took away part of the market, the gross profit margin of Zhifei Biotech\’s agent products has continued to decline since 2021. In the following three years fell 13.90%, 4.40% and 10.40% respectively.

By 2023, the gross profit margin of agency products will be only 25.68%.

Domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine attracts attention With the increasingly fierce competition in the vaccine market, the progress of domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine has attracted more and more market attention.

Sinolink Securities recommends paying attention to the launch process of the domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine.

Currently, a total of 5 HPV vaccines have been approved for marketing in China. Among them, the approved products of GSK, Wantai Biotech, and Watson Biotech are bivalent vaccines, and the approved products of Merck are quadrivalent and nine-valent vaccines.

In addition to Wantai Biological, there are currently many companies in China that have developed nine-price or higher HPV vaccines that have entered clinical phase III. Sinolink Securities recommends continuing to pay attention to their listing progress.

Minsheng Securities stated that at present, HPV, shingles and other vaccines in the domestic market are still dominated by imports, but domestic vaccines of various varieties are on the line, and the proportion of domestic vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.

Huatai Securities analysis pointed out that the launch of quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccines in 2017 and 2018 detonated the Chinese market. The scale of China\’s HPV market has grown from about 200 million yuan in 2017 to about 40 billion yuan in 2022. It is expected to reach 10% in the next five years. In 10 years, sales of nine-valent vaccines are expected to maintain a growth rate of 15% to 30%.

On the demand level, it is expected that in the next 5 to 10 years, the number of HPV vaccinations in China will be between 20 million and 30 million each year, of which the proportion of nine-valent vaccines will continue to increase; on the supply level, nine-valent vaccines are only imported domestically, and domestically produced vaccines The first tier is expected to be launched from 2025 to 2027, which will unleash huge market potential.

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