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U.S. retail sales in March rose higher than economists expected, further weakening investor confidence in the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates this year. Most U.S. Treasury bond yields climbed to new highs since the beginning of the year, with the 2-year Treasury bond yield approaching 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.62%, the highest level since November 14 last year. Expectations for monetary policy have shifted toward the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates later, with officials saying rate cuts would require a higher degree of confidence that inflation is continuing to rise toward its 2% target. Traders no longer fully expect a rate cut before November, whereas at the start of the year markets were fully pricing in rate cuts starting in March.

Glonghui, April 15 | US hedge fund Shah Capital has recommended that Covid-19 vaccine maker Novavax appoint two new independent directors, Suresh Katta and Venkat Peri, to its board. Shah Capital, which owns about 6.7% of Novavax’s outstanding common stock, said the low share price reflected the board and management’s failure to capitalize on many important competitive advantages and seize opportunities in the overall market. “We welcome the views of our shareholders and value their input on our strategy,” Novavax said in a statement. Novavax is one of the most shorted stocks on the Nasdaq (16175.0941, 0.00, 0.00%) and is currently trading near all-time lows. As of last trading day’s close, the stock had fallen more than 53% in the past 12 months. The stock rose about 3.5% premarket.

The convergence of interest rate cut expectations is rewriting the narrative of global capital markets. Recently, due to the impact of U.S. economic fundamentals such as inflation and employment that exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year have declined. The “anchor of global asset pricing” has made waves again. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently broke through the 4.5% mark and remains above this point. Some market participants are worried that the “nightmare” of 10-year U.S. bond yields pointing to 5% may strike again. Analysts believe that the current asset prices are more reflected in the correction of front-running transactions in anticipation of interest rate cuts. Looking ahead, interest rate cut expectations may continue to swing driven by data and geopolitics, affecting the trend of U.S. bond yields. Multi-maturity U.S. Treasury yields rise The rapid rise in U.S. bond yields has once again attracted market attention. On April 10, local time, as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March exceeded expectations across the board, the market was worried about the prospect…

In March, U.S. stocks continued to perform strongly. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to be favored by investors, with large capital inflows, while technology ETFs experienced net outflows. Data show that in March, global investors invested US$126.5 billion in ETF products in the US market. This data is second only to the last two months of 2023 and the third highest monthly inflow since 2021. In this round of buying boom, stock ETFs took over US$96.6 billion, showing that investors still have a relatively positive attitude towards US stocks. In terms of themes, industrial stock ETFs are the most popular, with net inflows of US$1.4 billion. This is the strongest performance of industrial themed stock ETFs since July 2023; raw materials and energy industry ETFs have a net inflow of US$1.3 billion and US$600 million respectively. Net inflows followed closely, and these are industries that are highly cyclical and highly dependent on economic performance. The capital movement in March sent an important signal. Technology ETFs experienced a net outflow of US$600 million, which was the first net outflow since June last…

CITIC Securities believes that driven by factors such as macroeconomic resilience, share improvement, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the overall performance of the US Internet sector in the first quarter is expected to exceed expectations. In terms of sectors, online advertising and e-commerce are the sub-sectors with the highest certainty. Benefiting from the macroeconomics and the continuous upgrade of AI recommendation systems, revenue and profit growth are expected to further accelerate. In the streaming media industry, driven by factors such as the relatively slow release of content, membership advertising, and crackdowns on shared accounts, leading companies are expected to benefit. In the local life sector, the trend of major companies reducing losses continues and demand remains stable. In addition, the improvement in cash flow of major Internet companies also brings potential opportunities for shareholder return growth. In terms of valuation, although expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to fluctuate, the valuations of major Internet companies have not deviated significantly from the valuation center of the past five years, and the overall price/performance ratio remains outstanding.

Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend represents the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East and has made global markets more worried about uncontrollable risks. Capital Economics said that heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran attacked Israel may give the Federal Reserve more reason to slow down the pace of raising interest rates, as soaring oil prices will disrupt the Fed’s battle with central banks. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said in a report on Sunday that the main risk facing the world is whether Iran and Israel will escalate their conflict into a broader regional conflict, and how the energy market will react. He said that rising oil prices will make inflation targets in advanced economies more complex, but only when energy prices become a key driver of core inflation rates will they likely have a substantial impact on central bank decision-making. According to the White House, it is working hard to prevent the situation from expanding further. Biden is said to have communicated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the…

Recently, the sharp rise in international gold prices has attracted the attention of investors from almost all over the world. Behind the frenzied buying in the gold market, another safe-haven asset, U.S. Treasury bonds, presents a completely different scene of depression. A series of weak performance at U.S. Treasury auctions has stoked investor concerns that the market will struggle to absorb the massive issuance of Treasury debt. In the past week, after weak demand for the US$39 billion 10-year Treasury bond auction, the bond market sell-off triggered by higher-than-expected U.S. CPI in March intensified. Investors also showed little interest in the three-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury auctions. Behind the growing caution among bond market investors is the growing belief that U.S. inflation is not yet fully under control and that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at multi-decade highs in the coming months or even years. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, known as the “anchor of global asset pricing” and the benchmark for pricing borrowing rates from mortgages to corporate loans, closed at around 4.5% last…

U.S. stock market: The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell. The Dow fell more than 1%, and the Nasdaq and S&P fell nearly 1%. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 422.16 points from the previous trading day, closing at 38461.51 points, a decrease of 1.09 %; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 136.28 points to close at 16170.36 points, a decrease of 0.84%. ; The S&P 500 stock index fell 49.27 points to close at 5160.64 points, a decrease of 0.95%. In terms of data, the U.S. announced before the market opened that the CPI in March increased by 3.5% year-on-year, which was higher than market expectations of 3.4% and the highest level since September 2023. Most large technology stocks fell, with Tesla falling more than 2%, Apple falling more than 1%, and Google and Microsoft following suit; Meta, Amazon, and Netflix rose slightly. The chip and semiconductor sectors were among the top decliners, with GF and NXP Semiconductors falling by more than 4%, Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and AMD falling by more than 2%; NVIDIA…

Driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) craze, technology stocks seem to have attracted all the attention of U.S. stock investors, but some analysts believe that investors should focus on a less dazzling industry. Driven by various bullish factors, The industry is ripe for strong gains. Energy stocks deserve more attention as the sector starts the year off with an impressive performance, according to top U.S. economist David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research profound. The S&P 500 Energy index has returned 16.3% so far this year, and investors haven’t noticed yet. “This is an overlooked segment of the market because investors have very negative positions (in the sector) (SPDR Energy ETF outflows of $2.7 billion over the past year),” he said. Overall, there are three main reasons why energy stocks are expected to rise further this year, with some analysts predicting the sector will rise as much as 20% from current levels. Strong fundamentals Even as technology stocks move higher on strong earnings, LPL Financial noted in a report that the energy sector posted more March earnings revisions than all S&P…

“The U.S. dollar is our currency, but it’s your trouble” – As the U.S. dollar has been rising against the backdrop of recent declines in expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, this famous quote from former U.S. Treasury Secretary Connally more than half a century ago seems to be coming back again. It has become a major problem for many policymakers in emerging markets… Many investors in the foreign exchange market have recently been paying attention to whether the Japanese government will intervene to prevent the yen, which has already fallen below the 153 mark, from weakening further. But in fact, in emerging markets, many economies face exchange rate pressures no less than Japan. Some locals said the foreign exchange market has become a key battleground, as the dollar’s recent surge has put tremendous pressure on an increasing number of emerging economies to intervene. Market data shows that as investors continue to buy gold and the US dollar, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index weakened for the third consecutive day on Friday, approaching the low of the year. Almost…