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JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists say don’t expect an upbeat corporate earnings season to drive stocks higher because much of the optimism has already been priced in after this year’s record gains. A research team led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a report that profit expectations for the first quarter have been lowered during the reporting period, which lowers the threshold for U.S. companies to exceed expectations. Strategists said that after excluding technology giants, S&P 500 companies’ profits are expected to decline across the board. At the same time, investor positions look “very stretched,” Matejka said, with major stock indexes hitting record highs on optimism about economic growth and interest rate cuts. He said: “The stock market has performed well post-earnings, suggesting investors are more optimistic than the pessimistic earnings forecasts conveyed by sell-side analysts. We need to see significant earnings acceleration to justify current stock valuations “It’s reasonable and we’re concerned that this may not happen.” Matejka said that so far, half of U.S. companies have performed below market expectations on the day of earnings reports. Despite a 10%…

The convergence of interest rate cut expectations is rewriting the narrative of global capital markets. Recently, due to the impact of U.S. economic fundamentals such as inflation and employment that exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year have declined. The “anchor of global asset pricing” has made waves again. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently broke through the 4.5% mark and remains above this point. Some market participants are worried that the “nightmare” of 10-year U.S. bond yields pointing to 5% may strike again. Analysts believe that the current asset prices are more reflected in the correction of front-running transactions in anticipation of interest rate cuts. Looking ahead, interest rate cut expectations may continue to swing driven by data and geopolitics, affecting the trend of U.S. bond yields. Multi-maturity U.S. Treasury yields rise The rapid rise in U.S. bond yields has once again attracted market attention. On April 10, local time, as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March exceeded expectations across the board, the market was worried about the prospect…

Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend represents the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East and has made global markets more worried about uncontrollable risks. Capital Economics said that heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran attacked Israel may give the Federal Reserve more reason to slow down the pace of raising interest rates, as soaring oil prices will disrupt the Fed’s battle with central banks. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, said in a report on Sunday that the main risk facing the world is whether Iran and Israel will escalate their conflict into a broader regional conflict, and how the energy market will react. He said that rising oil prices will make inflation targets in advanced economies more complex, but only when energy prices become a key driver of core inflation rates will they likely have a substantial impact on central bank decision-making. According to the White House, it is working hard to prevent the situation from expanding further. Biden is said to have communicated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the…

Recently, the sharp rise in international gold prices has attracted the attention of investors from almost all over the world. Behind the frenzied buying in the gold market, another safe-haven asset, U.S. Treasury bonds, presents a completely different scene of depression. A series of weak performance at U.S. Treasury auctions has stoked investor concerns that the market will struggle to absorb the massive issuance of Treasury debt. In the past week, after weak demand for the US$39 billion 10-year Treasury bond auction, the bond market sell-off triggered by higher-than-expected U.S. CPI in March intensified. Investors also showed little interest in the three-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury auctions. Behind the growing caution among bond market investors is the growing belief that U.S. inflation is not yet fully under control and that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at multi-decade highs in the coming months or even years. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, known as the “anchor of global asset pricing” and the benchmark for pricing borrowing rates from mortgages to corporate loans, closed at around 4.5% last…

Monday Eastern Time is another landmark day in American political history: A U.S. court will hear former U.S. President Trump’s “hush money” case, which means he will become the first former U.S. president to face a criminal trial. . Although it is widely believed that the case tried on Monday is the least impactful of the four criminal prosecutions faced by Trump, it is also the only case in which Trump will face a criminal trial before the US election in November this year. If Trump is convicted, not only may he be imprisoned, but it will also make the public doubt his ability to lead the country, affect his support among middle voters, and thus may change the results of the general election in November this year. In addition, since the trial process of the “hush money case” is expected to last 6 to 8 weeks, this means that Trump will have to appear in court four days a week for nearly two months, which may delay his Campaign schedule. For this reason, the Trump campaign dismissed the trial…

In the past four months, the month-on-month increase in U.S. CPI has never been less than 0.3% (0.3% in December and January last year, and further reached 0.4% in February and March). So, if CPI continues to show this resilience, how will U.S. inflation develop during the year? The forecast chart from research company Bespoke shows that if the month-on-month increase in U.S. CPI continues to remain at 0.3%, the year-on-year CPI is expected to return to the “4th era” by the end of the year, and if it remains at 0.4%, the year-end inflation may even reach the “5th era.” threshold. In view of the current surge in commodities that continues to add pressure for price recovery, the risk of “secondary inflation” in the United States cannot be underestimated.

Apple CEO Tim Cook posted a number of photos of “people in Vietnam” on social media: tasting Hanoi’s characteristic egg (yolk) coffee with musicians, and hanging out with film and television creators at the famous local Hoan Kiem Lake. Taking a photo with the iPhone’s rear camera. Obviously, as the head of a consumer electronics giant and a world-renowned supply chain guru, Cook’s visit to Vietnam is naturally related to the layout of the industrial chain. 400 trillion VND invested in the past five years Just when Cook arrived in Hanoi, Apple issued a statement on its official website in Vietnam, announcing that it would increase investment in Vietnam’s supply chain. According to data provided in the announcement, since 2019, Apple’s cumulative investment in Vietnam through supply chain partners has exceeded 400 trillion VND. (Note: The latest exchange rate of RMB against Vietnamese Dong is 3466.83, Apple’s investment in Vietnam is equivalent to more than 112 billion yuan) More importantly, Apple’s local investment is also accelerating. Also starting in 2019, the company’s annual investment in Vietnam has doubled. Currently, Vietnam’s…

As the first-quarter earnings season of the U.S. stock market slowly opened last week, JPMorgan Chase , which has always been bearish on the prospects of U.S. stocksAnother pessimistic warning. JP Morgan strategists are not optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings this earnings season, believing that except for a few technology giants, most U.S. stock companies will see an overall decline in earnings. They also believe that even if U.S. stock companies perform well in earnings, it will be difficult to push U.S. stocks higher because most of the optimism has been digested in advance. Xiaomo Mo’s pessimistic outlook on Q1 earnings season The team of Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategists at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a report that they have lowered their profit expectations for the first quarter of U.S. stock companies. Strategists said first-quarter earnings for most companies in the S&P 500 are expected to decline across the board after excluding several technology giants. Matejka also noted that investor positioning looks “very tight” as the S&P 500 index has risen to a record high. He…