JPMorgan

A JPMorgan indicator is sending a resounding buy signal on U.S. stocks after hitting a threshold that typically leads to above-average gains.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists say don’t expect an upbeat corporate earnings season to drive stocks higher because much of the optimism has already been priced in after this year’s record gains. A research team led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a report that profit expectations for the first quarter have been lowered during the reporting period, which lowers the threshold for U.S. companies to exceed expectations. Strategists said that after excluding technology giants, S&P 500 companies’ profits are expected to decline across the board. At the same time, investor positions look “very stretched,” Matejka said, with major stock indexes hitting record highs on optimism about economic growth and interest rate cuts. He said: “The stock market has performed well post-earnings, suggesting investors are more optimistic than the pessimistic earnings forecasts conveyed by sell-side analysts. We need to see significant earnings acceleration to justify current stock valuations “It’s reasonable and we’re concerned that this may not happen.” Matejka said that so far, half of U.S. companies have performed below market expectations on the day of earnings reports. Despite a 10%…

U.S. stock futures climbed ahead of the opening bell on Monday as global markets calmed and traders speculated that diplomatic efforts would help prevent an escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries fell, while gold remained strong near $2,350. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.6%. The German DAX index rose 1.1%, the British FTSE 100 index fell 0.3%, the French CAC 40 index rose 1.0%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.1%. U.S. Treasuries fell along with the dollar. U.S. WTI crude oil fell below $85 a barrel. Gold prices are hovering at $2,350. Investor nerves remained high over the prospect of Israeli retaliation against Iran, but investors took some comfort when Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the issue “can be considered closed.” The United States and other countries have also called on all parties to exercise restraint and strive to avoid the outbreak of a full-scale regional war. According to officials familiar with the development,…

As the first-quarter earnings season of the U.S. stock market slowly opened last week, JPMorgan Chase , which has always been bearish on the prospects of U.S. stocksAnother pessimistic warning. JP Morgan strategists are not optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings this earnings season, believing that except for a few technology giants, most U.S. stock companies will see an overall decline in earnings. They also believe that even if U.S. stock companies perform well in earnings, it will be difficult to push U.S. stocks higher because most of the optimism has been digested in advance. Xiaomo Mo’s pessimistic outlook on Q1 earnings season The team of Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategists at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a report that they have lowered their profit expectations for the first quarter of U.S. stock companies. Strategists said first-quarter earnings for most companies in the S&P 500 are expected to decline across the board after excluding several technology giants. Matejka also noted that investor positioning looks “very tight” as the S&P 500 index has risen to a record high. He…