Li Lianyang: Going deep into gold is the sea. Latest crude oil trend analysis and strategies

On April 25, after a brief market adjustment, the current congestion of gold and silver trading eased significantly, but the bullish direction of the market remained unchanged, and the total positions were still positive.

According to the latest report of Huatai Futures Company, gold futures positions increased by 8.467 billion yuan on the 24th, a month-on-month increase of 3.88%, ranking first among all varieties of positions on that day.

Despite the short-term adjustment in gold prices, institutions are not pessimistic about gold\’s mid- to long-term outlook.

Xu Ying, chief macro analyst at Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute, said that in the medium to long term, high interest rates and rising inflation pose downward risks to the U.S. economy. Financial market volatility is also increasing. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction scale is facing adjustments, and monetary policy will eventually enter an easing cycle.

Under the trend of anti-globalization, the importance of gold allocation is increasing, which forms the basis for the long-term rise of gold.

In the context that the long-term rising logic has not changed, investors can wait for better allocation opportunities brought by the callback.

Real-time gold market analysis: Gold prices rebounded to the 2337 line on Wednesday, and the overall trend was still range-bound within Tuesday\’s closing point.

At present, the Bollinger Bands of the gold hourly chart are closing. The upper rail moves down to the 2328 line, and the lower rail is located at 2312. The short-term thinking is very intuitive. The gold price can be bearish if it breaks below 2312, and there may be a chance that the decline will accelerate.

On the contrary, look at the shock.

Technically, both the daily line and the 4-hour graphic SAR indicators continue to diverge upward from low levels. The recent rebound did not break through the 2340 line, the previous top-to-bottom conversion position, so the main idea continues to be high-altitude.

Today\’s resistance focuses on the 4-hour indicator extension point 2329 and yesterday\’s high point 2337 resistance area. Above, pay attention to the suppression range formed by the previous top-bottom transition nodes 2340 and 2345. As long as it does not break through 2345, it is still necessary to maintain a high-altitude approach.

In terms of support, pay attention to the hourly line below the 2312 line. If it breaks below, look directly at the 2300 mark. At a lower point, pay attention to the 4-hour Bollinger Bands below the line 2288.

Overall, the rebound in gold price has not changed the downward trend. The main idea of ​​​​the market today continues to rebound high and is bearish! Gold strategy: Go short in batches when the rebound hits 2327-2332, stop loss 2337, target 2314-2300, hold if it breaks below; go long when the low hits 2305 (±2 points), stop loss 2294, target 2315-2320; United States last week Oil inventories fell by 6.37 million barrels.

The decline in inventories was greater than most analysts expected, the largest decline since January, and the declines in U.S. and Burundi oil prices narrowed.

Oil prices have retreated from recent highs above $90 a barrel as geopolitical risks in the Middle East begin to ease.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate passed tougher measures against Iran in response to its attack on Israel earlier this month.

While some Asian refiners are bracing for greater scrutiny, the move is not expected to have a major impact on the market.

The time spread showed tighter conditions in the oil market, with the spread between the two nearest Brent crude contracts widening to $1.05 a barrel, in backwardation.

Crude oil real-time market analysis: There was little upward trend in the market yesterday, and there has been no significant fluctuation in the market since the opening of the white market today.

From a technical point of view, the hourly Bollinger Bands are closed, with the upper track at 83.42 and the lower track at 82.41. In the European market, we will first look at the shocks in this range. Li Lianyang personally prefers oil prices to break downwards.

In terms of resistance today, focus on the 4-hour upper track and the 84 mark of the MA60 moving average. The monthly MA10 moving average coincides with the weekly MA5 moving average at 84.3. The middle track of the daily Bollinger Band is at the 84.8 line. In summary, crude oil prices have not physically broken. The 85 mark remains bearish.

On the whole, the rebound in crude oil prices does not change the downward trend, and the European and American trading ideas maintain high-altitude position building.

Crude oil strategy: Crude oil strategy: The European market gives a short position of 83.2. If it sees 83.7, cover the position once, stop loss 84.3, target 82.2-81.5, break below and hold; the low hits 81 for the first time, go long, stop loss 80.3, target 81.7- 2.4;

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